Recap of Principals Roundtable: “What’s Your Plan B?”
Posted on Nov. 15, 2019 / Subscribe 0
Just what is a “Plan B” and does your firm have one? Those questions generated a lively discussion among the more than two dozen firm principals participating in SMPS San Diego’s Principals Roundtable, which tackled the issue of Forecasting and Scenario Planning at its quarterly event last week.
The how’s and why’s of forecasting future business for your company were discussed in a prepared presentation by Galit Ryan, PE, of Peterson Structural Engineers.
Forecasting is the process of making an educated guess about the future health of your business based on your past and present performance, explained Galit to the group assembled at the offices of Coffman Engineers, sponsors of this quarter’s Principals Roundtable.
Casey Whitsett of Coffman Engineers said his firm has found that past data is valuable for forecasting purposes, particularly for understanding how long either an uptick or a downturn might last and how that impacts their manpower needs.
Ric Davy of Davy Architecture said he is a big believer in demographics when it comes to forecasting, adding that San Diego’s demographics and mild climate make it one of the best places in U.S. to have a business.
Exploring the question “what if” is a natural seque to the forecasting exercise because it forces those involved to think how they would respond in the event of the unexpected – in the event that you have to toss out all of your forecasting conclusions due to unexpected conditions affecting your company and your markets. This exercise is termed “scenario planning,” or developing a “Plan B” for your firm.
Kamela Kuresman of NV5 led this section of the prepared presentation in which she addressed the four basic steps of scenario planning.
1. Inventory the major trends and uncertainties in your environment;
2. Brainstorm possible outcomes and determine their impact;
3. Assess probabilities and chart your course;
4. Monitor and adjust course.
Don’t assume the future will look like the past – it’s a free and open debate, she said. In this case, it’s good to have a “contrarian” on the scenario planning team because that helps everyone to think outside the box.
Admitting that he is a “past offender” for not taking forecasting and scenario planning seriously, Farzad Tadayon of Salas O’Brien said that the economic downturn in 2008 made him understand the need to plan ahead. In response to concerns expressed by Wendy Neri of Neri Landscape Architecture that “forecasts are wildly inaccurate”, Farzad said he has found that “a 40% guess is better than a zero % guess.”
Ari Isaak of Evari GIS Consulting shared a current situation in which his firm is moving into “Plan B” mode due to the recent wildfires. In October, his firm was close to finalizing a major contract to provide GIS services to a utility in Northern California when the fires started. Although it’s unclear at this point how the fires will impact the contract, he said the situation is forcing him to do some scenario planning to be prepared.
“It’s important for me to realize what’s in my control and what’s not,” he said, adding that he is already seeing the possibility of the fires opening up new opportunities for the firm.
Sharon Singleton of KTUA Landscape Architecture stressed the importance of following up with any forecasting and/or scenario planning effort, noting that the follow-up is just as important as the initial planning.
The Principals Roundtable is a series of quarterly meetings sponsored by SMPS San Diego to provide principals of our member firms with a forum to discuss with their peers select marketing and other business issues of concern to leaders within the A/E/C industry. For each Roundtable, a member firm hosts the event and selects a topic, which is then researched and presented by the Principals Roundtable Planning Group.
Once a topic is selected, the planning group researches the topic and prepares a Power Point presentation of background information and talking points for the group. For this quarter, Casey Whitsett and Jim Conley of Coffman Engineers selected the topic of Forecasting and Scenario Planning, feeling that it would be a timely issue to explore at the end of the year. The research and Power Point slides are then available to attendees after the roundtable
The Principals Roundtable Planning Group consists of:
· Sharon Singleton, Principal of KTUA, [email protected]
· Terry Casey, Principal Owner of On Target Marketing & Communications, LLC, [email protected]
· Galit Ryan, P.E., Principal of Peterson Structural Engineers, [email protected]
· Beth Bateman, Owner of Bateman Communications, [email protected]
· Kamala Kuresman, Corporate Marketing Director of NV5, [email protected]
· Karen Tournaire, Marketing Director of Sillman Wright Architects, [email protected]
The November 2019 Roundtable was hosted by Coffman Engineers principals Casey Whitsett and Jim Conley. Farzad Tayadon of Salas O’Brien has offered to host the next Roundtable to be held on January 28, 2020 at Salas O’Brien’s offices. Stay tuned for further information on the topic to be discussed.
By Beth Bateman, Bateman Communications
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